When the optimal is not the best: parameter estimation in complex biological models

Background: The vast computational resources that became available during the past decade enabled the development and simulation of increasingly complex mathematical models of cancer growth. These models typically involve many free parameters whose determination is a substantial obstacle to model development. Direct measurement of biochemical parameters in vivo is often difficult and sometimes impracticable, while fitting them under data-poor conditions may result in biologically implausible values. Results: We discuss different methodological approaches to estimate parameters in complex biological models. We make use of the high computational power of the Blue Gene technology to perform an extensive study of the parameter space in a model of avascular tumor growth. We explicitly show that the landscape of the cost function used to optimize the model to the data has a very rugged surface in parameter space. This cost function has many local minima with unrealistic solutions, including the global minimum corresponding to the best fit. Conclusions: The case studied in this paper shows one example in which model parameters that optimally fit the data are not necessarily the best ones from a biological point of view. To avoid force-fitting a model to a dataset, we propose that the best model parameters should be found by choosing, among suboptimal parameters, those that match criteria other than the ones used to fit the model. We also conclude that the model, data and optimization approach form a new complex system, and point to the need of a theory that addresses this problem more generally

Success Factors of European Syndromic Surveillance Systems: A Worked Example of Applying Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Introduction: Syndromic surveillance aims at augmenting traditional public health surveillance with timely information. To gain a head start, it mainly analyses existing data such as from web searches or patient records. Despite the setup of many syndromic surveillance systems, there is still much doubt about the benefit of the approach. There are diverse interactions between performance indicators such as timeliness and various system characteristics. This makes the performance assessment of syndromic surveillance systems a complex endeavour. We assessed if the comparison of several syndromic surveillance systems through Qualitative Comparative Analysis helps to evaluate performance and identify key success factors. Materials and Methods: We compiled case-based, mixed data on performance and characteristics of 19 syndromic surveillance systems in Europe from scientific and grey literature and from site visits. We identified success factors by applying crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. We focused on two main areas of syndromic surveillance application: seasonal influenza surveillance and situational awareness during different types of potentially health threatening events. Results: We found that syndromic surveillance systems might detect the onset or peak of seasonal influenza earlier if they analyse non-clinical data sources. Timely situational awareness during different types of events is supported by an automated syndromic surveillance system capable of analysing multiple syndromes. To our surprise, the analysis of multiple data sources was no key success factor for situational awareness. Conclusions: We suggest to consider these key success factors when designing or further developing syndromic surveillance systems. Qualitative Comparative Analysis helped interpreting complex, mixed data on small-N cases and resulted in concrete and practically relevant findings

Natriuretic Peptides and Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Asymptomatic Persons

Current tools for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in asymptomatic individuals are imperfect. Preventive measures aimed only at individuals deemed high risk by current algorithms neglect large numbers of low-risk and intermediate-risk individuals who are destined to develop CVD and who would benefit from early and aggressive treatment. Natriuretic peptides have the potential both to identify individuals at risk for future cardiovascular events and to help detect subclinical CVD. Choosing the appropriate subpopulation to target for natriuretic peptide testing will help maximize the performance and the cost effectiveness. The combined use of multiple risk markers, including biomarkers, genetic testing, and imaging or other noninvasive measures of risk, offers promise for further refining risk assessment algorithms. Recent studies have highlighted the utility of natriuretic peptides for preoperative risk stratification; however, cost effectiveness and outcomes studies are needed to affirm this and other uses of natriuretic peptides for cardiovascular risk assessment in asymptomatic individuals

Scaling properties of protein family phylogenies

One of the classical questions in evolutionary biology is how evolutionary processes are coupled at the gene and species level. With this motivation, we compare the topological properties (mainly the depth scaling, as a characterization of balance) of a large set of protein phylogenies with a set of species phylogenies. The comparative analysis shows that both sets of phylogenies share remarkably similar scaling behavior, suggesting the universality of branching rules and of the evolutionary processes that drive biological diversification from gene to species level. In order to explain such generality, we propose a simple model which allows us to estimate the proportion of evolvability/robustness needed to approximate the scaling behavior observed in the phylogenies, highlighting the relevance of the robustness of a biological system (species or protein) in the scaling properties of the phylogenetic trees. Thus, the rules that govern the incapability of a biological system to diversify are equally relevant both at the gene and at the species level.Comment: Replaced with final published versio

Interleukin-17D and Nrf2 mediate initial innate immune cell recruitment and restrict MCMV infection.

Innate immune cells quickly infiltrate the site of pathogen entry and not only stave off infection but also initiate antigen presentation and promote adaptive immunity. The recruitment of innate leukocytes has been well studied in the context of extracellular bacterial and fungal infection but less during viral infections. We have recently shown that the understudied cytokine Interleukin (IL)-17D can mediate neutrophil, natural killer (NK) cell and monocyte infiltration in sterile inflammation and cancer. Herein, we show that early immune cell accumulation at the peritoneal site of infection by mouse cytomegalovirus (MCMV) is mediated by IL-17D. Mice deficient in IL-17D or the transcription factor Nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2 (Nrf2), an inducer of IL-17D, featured an early decreased number of innate immune cells at the point of viral entry and were more susceptible to MCMV infection. Interestingly, we were able to artificially induce innate leukocyte infiltration by applying the Nrf2 activator tert-butylhydroquinone (tBHQ), which rendered mice less susceptible to MCMV infection. Our results implicate the Nrf2/IL-17D axis as a sensor of viral infection and suggest therapeutic benefit in boosting this pathway to promote innate antiviral responses

The contribution of female community health volunteers (FCHVs) to maternity care in Nepal: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: In resource-poor settings, the provision of basic maternity care within health centres is often a challenge. Despite the difficulties, Nepal reduced its maternal mortality ratio by 80% from 850 to an estimated 170 per 100,000 live births between 1991 and 2011 to achieve Millennium Development Goal Five. One group that has been credited for this is community health workers, known as Female Community Health Volunteers (FCHVs), who form an integral part of the government healthcare system. This qualitative study explores the role of FCHVs in maternal healthcare provision in two regions: the Hill and Terai. METHODS: Between May 2014 and September 2014, 20 FCHVs, 11 health workers and 26 service users were purposefully selected and interviewed using semi-structured topic guides. In addition, four focus group discussions were held with 19 FCHVs. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: All study participants acknowledged the contribution of FCHVs in maternity care. All FCHVs reported that they shared key health messages through regularly held mothers' group meetings and referred women for health checks. The main difference between the two study regions was the support available to FCHVs from the local health centres. With regular training and access to medical supplies, FCHVs in the hill villages reported activities such as assisting with childbirth, distributing medicines and administering pregnancy tests. They also reported use of innovative approaches to educate mothers. Such activities were not reported in Terai. In both regions, a lack of monetary incentives was reported as a major challenge for already overburdened volunteers followed by a lack of education for FCHVs. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the role of FCHVs varies according to the context in which they work. FCHVs, supported by government health centres with emphasis on the use of local approaches, have the potential to deliver basic maternity care and promote health-seeking behaviour so that serious delays in receiving healthcare can be minimised. However, FCHVs need to be reimbursed and provided with educational training to ensure that they can work effectively. The study underlines the relevance of community health workers in resource-poor settings

Quantifying uncertainty, variability and likelihood for ordinary differential equation models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In many applications, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are subject to uncertainty or variability in initial conditions and parameters. Both, uncertainty and variability can be quantified in terms of a probability density function on the state and parameter space.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The partial differential equation that describes the evolution of this probability density function has a form that is particularly amenable to application of the well-known method of characteristics. The value of the density at some point in time is directly accessible by the solution of the original ODE extended by a single extra dimension (for the value of the density). This leads to simple methods for studying uncertainty, variability and likelihood, with significant advantages over more traditional Monte Carlo and related approaches especially when studying regions with low probability.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While such approaches based on the method of characteristics are common practice in other disciplines, their advantages for the study of biological systems have so far remained unrecognized. Several examples illustrate performance and accuracy of the approach and its limitations.</p

Enhanced Transferrin Receptor Expression by Proinflammatory Cytokines in Enterocytes as a Means for Local Delivery of Drugs to Inflamed Gut Mucosa

Therapeutic intervention in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) is often associated with adverse effects related to drug distribution into non-diseased tissues, a situation which attracts a rational design of a targeted treatment confined to the inflamed mucosa. Upon activation of immune cells, transferrin receptor (TfR) expression increases at their surface. Because TfR is expressed in all cell types we hypothesized that its cell surface levels are regulated also in enterocytes. We, therefore, compared TfR expression in healthy and inflamed human colonic mucosa, as well as healthy and inflamed colonic mucosa of the DNBS-induced rat model. TfR expression was elevated in the colonic mucosa of IBD patients in both the basolateral and apical membranes of the enterocytes. Increased TfR expression was also observed in colonocytes of the induced colitis rats. To explore the underlying mechanism CaCo-2 cells were treated with various proinflammatory cytokines, which increased both TfR expression and transferrin cellular uptake in a mechanism that did not involve hyper proliferation. These findings were then exploited for the design of targetable carrier towards inflamed regions of the colon. Anti-TfR antibodies were conjugated to nano-liposomes. As expected, iron-starved Caco-2 cells internalized anti-TfR immunoliposomes better than controls. Ex vivo binding studies to inflamed mucosa showed that the anti-TfR immunoliposomes accumulated significantly better in the mucosa of DNBS-induced rats than the accumulation of non-specific immunoliposomes. It is concluded that targeting mucosal inflammation can be accomplished by nano-liposomes decorated with anti-TfR due to inflammation-dependent, apical, elevated expression of the receptor

Cell salvage and donor blood transfusion during cesarean section: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised controlled trial (SALVO)

BACKGROUND: Excessive haemorrhage at cesarean section requires donor (allogeneic) blood transfusion. Cell salvage may reduce this requirement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a pragmatic randomised controlled trial (at 26 obstetric units; participants recruited from 4 June 2013 to 17 April 2016) of routine cell salvage use (intervention) versus current standard of care without routine salvage use (control) in cesarean section among women at risk of haemorrhage. Randomisation was stratified, using random permuted blocks of variable sizes. In an intention-to-treat analysis, we used multivariable models, adjusting for stratification variables and prognostic factors identified a priori, to compare rates of donor blood transfusion (primary outcome) and fetomaternal haemorrhage ≥2 ml in RhD-negative women with RhD-positive babies (a secondary outcome) between groups. Among 3,028 women randomised (2,990 analysed), 95.6% of 1,498 assigned to intervention had cell salvage deployed (50.8% had salvaged blood returned; mean 259.9 ml) versus 3.9% of 1,492 assigned to control. Donor blood transfusion rate was 3.5% in the control group versus 2.5% in the intervention group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42 to 1.01, p = 0.056; adjusted risk difference -1.03, 95% CI -2.13 to 0.06). In a planned subgroup analysis, the transfusion rate was 4.6% in women assigned to control versus 3.0% in the intervention group among emergency cesareans (adjusted OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.99), whereas it was 2.2% versus 1.8% among elective cesareans (adjusted OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.83) (interaction p = 0.46). No case of amniotic fluid embolism was observed. The rate of fetomaternal haemorrhage was higher with the intervention (10.5% in the control group versus 25.6% in the intervention group, adjusted OR 5.63, 95% CI 1.43 to 22.14, p = 0.013). We are unable to comment on long-term antibody sensitisation effects. CONCLUSIONS: The overall reduction observed in donor blood transfusion associated with the routine use of cell salvage during cesarean section was not statistically significant. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was prospectively registered on ISRCTN as trial number 66118656 and can be viewed on http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66118656

Onset dynamics of type A botulinum neurotoxin-induced paralysis

Experimental studies have demonstrated that botulinum neurotoxin serotype A (BoNT/A) causes flaccid paralysis by a multi-step mechanism. Following its binding to specific receptors at peripheral cholinergic nerve endings, BoNT/A is internalized by receptor-mediated endocytosis. Subsequently its zinc-dependent catalytic domain translocates into the neuroplasm where it cleaves a vesicle-docking protein, SNAP-25, to block neurally evoked cholinergic neurotransmission. We tested the hypothesis that mathematical models having a minimal number of reactions and reactants can simulate published data concerning the onset of paralysis of skeletal muscles induced by BoNT/A at the isolated rat neuromuscular junction (NMJ) and in other systems. Experimental data from several laboratories were simulated with two different models that were represented by sets of coupled, first-order differential equations. In this study, the 3-step sequential model developed by Simpson (J Pharmacol Exp Ther 212:16–21,1980) was used to estimate upper limits of the times during which anti-toxins and other impermeable inhibitors of BoNT/A can exert an effect. The experimentally determined binding reaction rate was verified to be consistent with published estimates for the rate constants for BoNT/A binding to and dissociating from its receptors. Because this 3-step model was not designed to reproduce temporal changes in paralysis with different toxin concentrations, a new BoNT/A species and rate (kS) were added at the beginning of the reaction sequence to create a 4-step scheme. This unbound initial species is transformed at a rate determined by kS to a free species that is capable of binding. By systematically adjusting the values of kS, the 4-step model simulated the rapid decline in NMJ function (kS ≥0.01), the less rapid onset of paralysis in mice following i.m. injections (kS = 0.001), and the slow onset of the therapeutic effects of BoNT/A (kS < 0.001) in man. This minimal modeling approach was not only verified by simulating experimental results, it helped to quantitatively define the time available for an inhibitor to have some effect (tinhib) and the relation between this time and the rate of paralysis onset. The 4-step model predicted that as the rate of paralysis becomes slower, the estimated upper limits of (tinhib) for impermeable inhibitors become longer. More generally, this modeling approach may be useful in studying the kinetics of other toxins or viruses that invade host cells by similar mechanisms, e.g., receptor-mediated endocytosis